Risk Intelligence
Core Model
B−
70 / 100
Insufficient Data
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Above average on this measure.
Suggestions
CDNA · NASDAQ
CAREDX INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$50.26
+0.48%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 12/19/2023
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
CAREDX INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence partial
63 / 100
Rank #164 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 24% · Watch
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
F
37 / 100
Insufficient Data
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
A
94 / 100
Insufficient Data
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
A+
100 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
C
64 / 100
Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
D
46 / 100
Moderate Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
- Attractive valuation: the stock reads 64 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence (Attractive) relative to its own history and comparable companies.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
CAREDX INC scores 37 on Long-Term Potential (F), described by the research model as insufficient data. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 100 (A+): Positive disclosed activity. 1 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
CAREDX INC reads 64 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
CAREDX INC reads 46 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting no measurable direct capital returns. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare CDNA with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
CAREDX INC (CDNA) scores 63 out of 100 and ranks #164 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 24% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is watch.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 70 out of 100 (B−), recorded as insufficient data. Above average on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 37 out of 100 (F), recorded as insufficient data. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 94 out of 100 (A), recorded as insufficient data. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 100 out of 100 (A+), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 64 out of 100 (C), recorded as Attractive. CAREDX INC reads 64 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 46 out of 100 (D), recorded as Moderate Capital Returns. CAREDX INC reads 46 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting no measurable direct capital returns. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is partial. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Fundamental Momentum and Ownership Intelligence. Long-Term Potential remains the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
63 / 100
Watch
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #164 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 25%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
—Rank unchanged. Rank unchanged.
- Risk Intelligence
- 70
- Long-Term Potential
- 37
- Fundamental Momentum
- 94
- Ownership Intelligence
- 100
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
100 / 100 · Strong · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Partial Coverage
- Elite Investor Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Institutional Activity
- 100 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
No reliably mapped professional-manager filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Improving fundamentals
Recent reported business trends rank among the strongest in the qualified universe.
Strong ownership evidence
Disclosed institutional activity evidence is favourable relative to other qualified companies. Ownership evidence is descriptive and reported with a delay.
What holds it back
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
Ownership Intelligence — Partial Coverage
Only part of the ownership evidence is available for this company. Missing evidence is left missing rather than replaced with a neutral value.
Price Risk is less favourable
Price Risk sits in the higher category relative to other qualified companies.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Good. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 64 · Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 46 · Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 63.1 of the stored score (63.1).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 20.9 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 70 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 70 · 33% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 3.8 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 13 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 37 · 6% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 19.8 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 99 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 94 · 31% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 18.6 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 93 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 100 · 30% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Risk Intelligence — 70 percentile, adding 20.9 points.
- Fundamental Momentum — 99 percentile, adding 19.8 points.
- Ownership Intelligence — 93 percentile, adding 18.6 points.
What deserves attention
- Long-Term Potential — 13 percentile, adding only 3.8 of a possible 30 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — CAREDX INC reads 64 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — CAREDX INC reads 46 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting no measurable direct capital returns. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
64/ 100
Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
44
Elevated
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
73
Very Attractive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
50
Reasonable
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
100
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
CAREDX INC reads 64 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current EV/Sales 4.9x · own median 3.7x · peer median 5.6x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
46/ 100
Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
—
Not Applicable — No Dividend
Dividend reliability
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
30
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
76
Strong Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
25
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
CAREDX INC reads 46 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting no measurable direct capital returns. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $0.00 · net repurchases $44.50M · total returned $44.50M · 53% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #164 | Score 63 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #164 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
CareDx is a precision medicine company dedicated to improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health. We deliver solutions designed to empower clinicians and improve patient outcomes. The Company's integrated solutions include non-invasive molecular testing for heart, kidney, and lung transplants; laboratory products; digital health technologies; and patient solutions that support care before and after transplant. CareDx is the leading provider of genomics-based information for transplant patients. Our headquarters is located in Brisbane, California, and we have other primary operations in Omaha, Nebraska and Stockholm, Sweden.
We were originally incorporated in Delaware in December 1998 under the name Hippocratic Engineering, Inc. In April 1999, we changed our name to BioCardia, Inc., and in June 2002, we changed our name to Expression Diagnostics, Inc. In July 2007, we changed our name to XDx, Inc. and in March 2014, we changed our name to CareDx, Inc. Our principal executive offices are located at 8000 Marina Boulevard, Brisbane, California and our telephone number is (415) 287-2300. As of December 31, 2025, substantially all of our revenues came from the United States and Europe, and substantially all of our assets and operations were located in the United States and Sweden.
We are organized and operate as a single reportable segment. Refer to Note 13, Segment Reporting, of the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
We aim to create life-changing solutions that enable transplant patients to thrive. Over the past 25 years, we have made considerable investments, bringing to market a portfolio of solutions that have significantly impacted the lives of hundreds of thousands of transplant patients globally.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 25, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
70
Fundamentally Qualified
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
37
Weak Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
94
Accelerating
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Too few tracked managers disclosed a position to describe consensus.
Intelligence history
Not enough stored history to chart CDNA yet. A company needs at least two published research or ownership periods before a trend can be shown.
Share price
CDNA price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +205.5%
- 1Y change
- +271.5%
- 3Y change
- +498.3%
- 5Y change
- -25.4%
- Max change
- +137.6%
Last stored close $50.26 · +271.5% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
4
New holders
4
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2023-06-30 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
No qualifying changes are recorded for this company in the stored research and filing history.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.