Risk Intelligence
Core Model
C+
68 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Suggestions
COST · Nasdaq
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Private betaConsumer Staples · Consumer Staples Retail
$904.77
+0.26%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Defensively Qualified
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW
Consumer Staples · Consumer Staples Retail · Data confidence good
51 / 100
Rank #332 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 48% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
D+
53 / 100
Elite Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
C−
56 / 100
Accelerating
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C
65 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
F
35 / 100
Elevated
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
D
50 / 100
Moderate Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 35 out of 100, Elevated).
Long-term view
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW scores 53 on Long-Term Potential (D+), described by the research model as elite compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 65 (C): Positive disclosed activity. 19 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 35 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 50 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend paid for 13 consecutive years. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare COST with other companiesResearch Collections
This company does not currently satisfy any collection rule. That is a stored research result, not a judgement about the business.
Browse collectionsAbout a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW (COST) scores 51 out of 100 and ranks #332 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 48% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 68 out of 100 (C+), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 53 out of 100 (D+), recorded as elite compounder. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 56 out of 100 (C−), recorded as accelerating. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 65 out of 100 (C), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation is currently the main point of caution: Valuation Intelligence reads 35 out of 100 (F), recorded as Elevated. COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 35 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 50 out of 100 (D), recorded as Moderate Capital Returns. COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 50 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend paid for 13 consecutive years. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 35 out of 100, Elevated). Data confidence for this company is good.
Bottom line
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Long-Term Potential and Fundamental Momentum remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads elevated at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
51 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #332 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 48%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
194Rank weakened by 194 positions. Rank weakened by 194 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 68
- Long-Term Potential
- 53
- Fundamental Momentum
- 56
- Ownership Intelligence
- 65
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
65 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 58 · Moderately Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 81 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
No component ranks in the top quartile of the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 35 · Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 50 · Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 51.0 of the stored score (51.0).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 19.2 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 64 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 68 · 38% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 14.0 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 47 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 53 · 27% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 11.7 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 59 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 56 · 23% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 6.1 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 30 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 65 · 12% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Risk Intelligence — 64 percentile, adding 19.2 points.
What deserves attention
- Ownership Intelligence — 30 percentile, adding only 6.1 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 35 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 50 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend paid for 13 consecutive years.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
35/ 100
Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
25
Expensive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
21
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
39
Elevated
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
63
Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 35 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended May 10, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 45.4x · own median 36.7x · peer median 21.9x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
50/ 100
Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
48
Moderate Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
30
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
88
Exceptional Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
39
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW reads 50 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend paid for 13 consecutive years.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $2.31B · net repurchases $883.00M · total returned $3.19B · 36% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended May 10, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #332 | Score 51 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #332 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Costco Wholesale Corporation and its subsidiaries (Costco or the Company) began operations in 1983, in Seattle, Washington. We are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States (U.S.) and Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom (U.K.), Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Sweden, Iceland, and New Zealand. Costco operated 914, 890, and 861 warehouses worldwide at August 31, 2025, September 1, 2024, and September 3, 2023. The Company operates e-commerce sites in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the U.K., Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. Our common stock trades on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, under the symbol "COST."
We report on a 52/53-week fiscal year, consisting of thirteen four-week periods and ending on the Sunday nearest the end of August. The first three quarters consist of three periods each, and the fourth quarter consists of four periods (five weeks in the thirteenth period in a 53-week year). The material seasonal impact in our operations is increased net sales and earnings during the winter holiday season. References to 2025 and 2024 relate to the 52-week fiscal years ended August 31, 2025, and September 1, 2024. References to 2023 relate to the 53-week fiscal year ended September 3, 2023.
We operate membership warehouses and e-commerce sites based on the concept that offering low prices on a limited selection of nationally-branded and private-label products in a wide range of categories will produce high sales volumes and rapid inventory turnover. When combined with the operating efficiencies achieved by volume purchasing, efficient distribution and reduced handling of merchandise in no-frills, self-service warehouse facilities, these volumes and turnover enable us to operate profitably at significantly lower gross margins (net sales less merchandise costs) than most other retailers. We often sell inventory before we are required to pay for it, even while taking advantage of early payment discounts.
We buy most of our merchandise directly from suppliers and route it to cross-docking consolidation points (depots) or directly to our warehouses. Our depots receive large shipments from suppliers and quickly ship these goods to warehouses. This process creates freight volume and handling efficiencies, lowering
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed October 8, 2025. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
68
Fundamentally Qualified
-0.6 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
53
Ordinary Compounder
-18 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
56
Middle
-7 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
58
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
19 tracked managers disclosed a position for this period.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
COST score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
COST intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 68.4 on 2026-09-11, down 0.6 from 69 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 53.4 on 2026-09-11, down 18 from 71.4 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 55.9 on 2026-09-11, down 7 from 62.9 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 57.9 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 57.9 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 68.4 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-0.6 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 53.4 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-18 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 55.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-7 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 57.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
COST price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- -9.5%
- 1Y change
- -5.6%
- 3Y change
- +68.1%
- 5Y change
- +106.0%
- Max change
- +240.7%
Last stored close $904.77 · -5.6% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
64
New holders
44
Increasing
6
Reducing
10
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2023-09-30 · Public 12/27/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Lower risk.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 71.4 to 44.1.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 62.9 to 54.7.
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 65.6 to 69.0.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 44.2 to 71.4.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 57.7 to 62.9.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 34 to 53 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 47 to 34 for the reporting period ending 2025-09-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 29 to 47 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 53 to 29 for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.