Risk Intelligence
Core Model
A−
86 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Suggestions
MA · NYSE
MASTERCARD INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$569.19
+0.68%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Defensively Qualified
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
MASTERCARD INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
73 / 100
Rank #65 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 10% · Worth a Closer Look
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
B+
84 / 100
Elite Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Above average on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
D+
50 / 100
Accelerating
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C−
58 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
F
39 / 100
Elevated
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
C
64 / 100
Favorable Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 39 out of 100, Elevated).
Long-term view
MASTERCARD INC scores 84 on Long-Term Potential (B+), described by the research model as elite compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 58 (C−): Positive disclosed activity. 17 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
MASTERCARD INC reads 39 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
MASTERCARD INC reads 64 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 16.9% a year and a share count falling about 2.3% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare MA with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
- Low-Risk Long-Term Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Low-Dilution Compounderssince 2026-09-12
- Newly Suggestedsince 2026-09-12
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
MASTERCARD INC (MA) scores 73 out of 100 and ranks #65 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 10% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is worth a closer look.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 86 out of 100 (A−), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 84 out of 100 (B+), recorded as elite compounder. Above average on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 50 out of 100 (D+), recorded as accelerating. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 58 out of 100 (C−), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation is currently the main point of caution: Valuation Intelligence reads 39 out of 100 (F), recorded as Elevated. MASTERCARD INC reads 39 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 64 out of 100 (C), recorded as Favorable Capital Returns. MASTERCARD INC reads 64 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 16.9% a year and a share count falling about 2.3% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 39 out of 100, Elevated). Data confidence for this company is good.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Risk Intelligence and Long-Term Potential. Fundamental Momentum and Ownership Intelligence remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads elevated at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
73 / 100
Worth a Closer Look
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #65 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 10%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
37Rank weakened by 37 positions. Rank weakened by 37 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 86
- Long-Term Potential
- 84
- Fundamental Momentum
- 50
- Ownership Intelligence
- 58
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
58 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 47 · Mixed
- Institutional Activity
- 86 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is mixed.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Strong risk profile
Risk Intelligence ranks in the top 2% of qualified companies, with lower_risk price risk.
Exceptional long-term potential
Stored profitability, capital efficiency and reinvestment readings rank near the top of the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Fundamental Momentum is softer
Reported business trends rank below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
Disclosed elite investor activity evidence is weak or neutral. Ownership evidence is supplemental and never automatically positive.
Ownership evidence disagrees
Different owner groups point in different directions, so the combined reading is best read as mixed rather than uniformly favourable.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 39 · Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 64 · Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 73.3 of the stored score (73.3).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 29.6 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 99 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 86 · 40% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 29.9 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 100 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 84 · 41% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 9.7 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 49 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 50 · 13% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 4.0 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 20 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 58 · 6% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Long-Term Potential — 100 percentile, adding 29.9 points.
- Risk Intelligence — 99 percentile, adding 29.6 points.
What deserves attention
- Ownership Intelligence — 20 percentile, adding only 4.0 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — MASTERCARD INC reads 39 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — MASTERCARD INC reads 64 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 16.9% a year and a share count falling about 2.3% a year.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
39/ 100
Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
46
Elevated
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
4
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
47
Elevated
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
60
Reasonable
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
MASTERCARD INC reads 39 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
The business displays strong long-term characteristics, but today's market price reflects high expectations.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 30.7x · own median 37.7x · peer median 12.4x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
64/ 100
Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
87
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
77
Strong Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
73
Strong Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
14
Limited Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
59
Favorable Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
MASTERCARD INC reads 64 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 16.9% a year and a share count falling about 2.3% a year.
Distributions coincided with rising debt over this period, so part of the cash returned was not funded by the cash the business generated.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $2.92B · net repurchases $15.66B · total returned $18.58B · 116% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #65 | Score 73 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #65 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. We connect consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments, digital partners, businesses and other organizations worldwide by enabling electronic payments and making those payment transactions secure, simple, smart and accessible. We make payments easier and more efficient by providing a wide range of payment solutions and services using our family of well-known and trusted brands, including our primary brand Mastercard , as well as our Maestro and Cirrus brands. We operate a payments network that provides choice and flexibility for consumers, merchants and our customers. Through our unique and proprietary global payments network, we switch (authorize, clear and settle) payment transactions. We have additional payments capabilities that include automated clearing house ("ACH") transactions (both batch and real-time account-based payments). Using these capabilities, we offer consumer and commercial payment products, capture new payment flows and provide services and solutions. These services and solutions include, among others, security solutions, consumer acquisition and engagement services, business and market insights, digital and authentication, processing and gateway and other solutions, all of which draw on our principled and responsible use of secure data . Our capabilities strengthen, reinforce and complement each other and are fundamentally interdependent. For our global payments network, our franchise model sets the standards and ground-rules that balance value and risk across (and allow for interoperability among) all stakeholders. We employ a multi-layered approach to help protect the global payments ecosystem in which we operate.
The following are our key financial and operational highlights for 2025, including growth rates over the prior year:
1 Non-GAAP results (including growth rates) exclude the impact of gains and losses on equity investments, Special Items and/or foreign currency. See "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Financial Results Overview" in Part II, Item 7 for the reconciliation to the most direct comparable GAAP financial measures.
The following chart provides gross dollar volume ("GDV") and number of cards featuring our brands in 2025 for select programs and solutions:
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 11, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
86
Fundamentally Qualified
+5.2 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
84
Elite Compounder
+9.8 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
50
Middle
-22.5 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
47
Lower range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
17 tracked managers disclosed a position for this period.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
MA score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
MA intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 85.5 on 2026-09-11, up 5.2 from 80.3 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 83.6 on 2026-09-11, up 9.8 from 73.8 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 50.3 on 2026-09-11, down 22.5 from 72.8 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 47.1 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 47.1 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 85.5 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+5.2 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 83.6 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+9.8 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 50.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-22.5 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 47.1 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
MA price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +14.8%
- 1Y change
- -2.7%
- 3Y change
- +39.2%
- 5Y change
- +69.7%
- Max change
- +96.0%
Last stored close $569.19 · -2.7% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
1
New holders
1
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2016-12-31 · Public 12/22/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Lower risk.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 73.8 to 82.0.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 72.8 to 47.8.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 82.0 to 73.8.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 68.9 to 72.8.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 36 to 50 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 53 to 31 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 35 to 53 for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 90 to 35 for the reporting period ending 2024-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 50 to 90 for the reporting period ending 2024-09-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.