Risk Intelligence
Core Model
C+
68 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Suggestions
MPC · NYSE
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$395.93
+0.89%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Defensively Qualified
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
66 / 100
Rank #128 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 19% · Watch
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
C+
66 / 100
Weak Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
A−
89 / 100
Middle
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C−
57 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
C+
66 / 100
Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
A
93 / 100
Exceptional Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Among the strongest readings on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
- Attractive valuation: the stock reads 66 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence (Attractive) relative to its own history and comparable companies.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP scores 66 on Long-Term Potential (C+), described by the research model as weak compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 57 (C−): Positive disclosed activity. 8 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 66 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 93 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 12.6% a year and a share count falling about 15.0% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare MPC with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
- Strong Capital Returnerssince 2026-09-12
- Effective Buyback Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Dividend Growth Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Attractive Valuationsince 2026-09-12
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) scores 66 out of 100 and ranks #128 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 19% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is watch.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 68 out of 100 (C+), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 66 out of 100 (C+), recorded as weak compounder. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 89 out of 100 (A−), recorded as middle. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 57 out of 100 (C−), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 66 out of 100 (C+), recorded as Attractive. MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 66 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 93 out of 100 (A), recorded as Exceptional Capital Returns. MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 93 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 12.6% a year and a share count falling about 15.0% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is good. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Fundamental Momentum. Ownership Intelligence remains the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
66 / 100
Watch
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #128 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 25%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
68Rank weakened by 68 positions. Rank weakened by 68 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 68
- Long-Term Potential
- 66
- Fundamental Momentum
- 89
- Ownership Intelligence
- 57
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
57 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 50 · Moderately Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 75 · Positive
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is positive.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Exceptional long-term potential
Stored profitability, capital efficiency and reinvestment readings rank near the top of the qualified universe.
Improving fundamentals
Recent reported business trends rank among the strongest in the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence disagrees
Different owner groups point in different directions, so the combined reading is best read as mixed rather than uniformly favourable.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 66 · Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 93 · Exceptional Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 66.4 of the stored score (66.4).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 18.7 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 62 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 68 · 28% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 24.4 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 81 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 66 · 37% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 19.4 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 97 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 89 · 29% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 3.9 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 20 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 57 · 6% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Long-Term Potential — 81 percentile, adding 24.4 points.
- Fundamental Momentum — 97 percentile, adding 19.4 points.
- Risk Intelligence — 62 percentile, adding 18.7 points.
What deserves attention
- Ownership Intelligence — 20 percentile, adding only 3.9 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 66 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 93 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 12.6% a year and a share count falling about 15.0% a year.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
66/ 100
Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
34
Expensive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
58
Reasonable
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
86
Very Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
100
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 66 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 13.0x · own median 11.2x · peer median 14.7x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
93/ 100
Exceptional Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
94
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
93
Exceptional Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
97
Exceptional Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
88
Exceptional Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
96
Exceptional Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP reads 93 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 12.6% a year and a share count falling about 15.0% a year.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $1.16B · net repurchases $4.93B · total returned $6.09B · 44% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #128 | Score 66 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #128 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Regulatory Matters for additional information on these and other regulatory compliance matters.
Competitors that produce their own supply of feedstocks, own their own retail sites, or have greater financial resources may have a competitive advantage.
The refining and marketing industry is highly competitive with respect to both feedstock supply and refined petroleum products. We compete with many companies for available supplies of crude oil and other feedstocks, and we do not produce any of our crude oil feedstocks. Our competitors include multinational, integrated major oil companies that can obtain a significant portion of their feedstocks from company-owned production. Competitors that produce crude oil are at times better positioned to withstand periods of depressed refining margins or feedstock shortages.
We also compete with other companies for customers for our refined petroleum products. The independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon-branded outlets and the direct dealer locations we supply compete with other convenience store chains, outlets owned or operated by integrated major oil companies or their dealers or jobbers, and other well-recognized national or regional retail outlets, often selling transportation fuels and merchandise at very competitive prices. Non-traditional
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 26, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
68
Fundamentally Qualified
+10.6 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
66
Elite Compounder
+27.7 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
89
Accelerating
+40.2 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
50
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
8 tracked managers disclosed a position for this period.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
MPC score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
MPC intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 67.7 on 2026-09-11, up 10.6 from 57.1 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 66.3 on 2026-09-11, up 27.7 from 38.6 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 88.7 on 2026-09-11, up 40.2 from 48.5 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 50 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 50 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 67.7 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+10.6 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 66.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+27.7 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 88.7 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+40.2 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 50 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
MPC price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +73.2%
- 1Y change
- +120.8%
- 3Y change
- +170.3%
- 5Y change
- +649.4%
- Max change
- +680.7%
Last stored close $395.93 · +120.8% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
1
New holders
1
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2016-12-31 · Public 12/22/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 57.1 to 65.9.
- Risk Intelligence
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Normal risk.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 38.6 to 60.3.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 48.5 to 92.2.
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive weakened
Business Quality qualification score moved from 62.4 to 57.1.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 60.3 to 38.6.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 66.6 to 48.5.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 71 to 50 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 43 to 71 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 21 to 43 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.