Risk Intelligence
Core Model
B−
72 / 100
Restricted
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Above average on this measure.
Suggestions
MSFT · Nasdaq
MICROSOFT CORP
Private betaInformation Technology · Software
$495.63
+0.65%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Watch
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
MICROSOFT CORP
Information Technology · Software · Data confidence good
62 / 100
Rank #176 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 26% · Watch
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
C+
68 / 100
Not Scored
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
D
49 / 100
Not Scored
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C
61 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
D+
51 / 100
Reasonable
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
C
62 / 100
Favorable Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
MICROSOFT CORP scores 68 on Long-Term Potential (C+), described by the research model as not scored. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 61 (C): Positive disclosed activity. 27 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
MICROSOFT CORP reads 51 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
MICROSOFT CORP reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.2% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare MSFT with other companiesResearch Collections
This company does not currently satisfy any collection rule. That is a stored research result, not a judgement about the business.
Browse collectionsAbout a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) scores 62 out of 100 and ranks #176 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 26% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is watch.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 72 out of 100 (B−), recorded as restricted. Above average on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 68 out of 100 (C+), recorded as not scored. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 49 out of 100 (D), recorded as not scored. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 61 out of 100 (C), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears reasonable: Valuation Intelligence reads 51 out of 100 (D+), recorded as Reasonable. MICROSOFT CORP reads 51 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 62 out of 100 (C), recorded as Favorable Capital Returns. MICROSOFT CORP reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.2% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is good. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Fundamental Momentum remains the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads reasonable at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
62 / 100
Watch
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #176 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 26%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
104Rank weakened by 104 positions. Rank weakened by 104 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 72
- Long-Term Potential
- 68
- Fundamental Momentum
- 49
- Ownership Intelligence
- 61
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
61 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 52 · Moderately Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 84 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Exceptional long-term potential
Stored profitability, capital efficiency and reinvestment readings rank near the top of the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Fundamental Momentum is softer
Reported business trends rank below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence disagrees
Different owner groups point in different directions, so the combined reading is best read as mixed rather than uniformly favourable.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 51 · Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 62 · Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 62.2 of the stored score (62.2).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 22.4 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 75 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 72 · 36% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 25.4 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 85 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 68 · 41% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 9.3 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 46 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 49 · 15% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 5.1 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 25 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 61 · 8% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Long-Term Potential — 85 percentile, adding 25.4 points.
- Risk Intelligence — 75 percentile, adding 22.4 points.
What deserves attention
- Ownership Intelligence — 25 percentile, adding only 5.1 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — MICROSOFT CORP reads 51 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — MICROSOFT CORP reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.2% a year.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
51/ 100
Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
53
Reasonable
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
44
Elevated
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
44
Elevated
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
67
Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
MICROSOFT CORP reads 51 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 27.5x · own median 30.4x · peer median 28.4x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
62/ 100
Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
90
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
47
Moderate Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
76
Strong Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
44
Moderate Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
MICROSOFT CORP reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.2% a year.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $26.45B · net repurchases $20.26B · total returned $46.71B · 70% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #176 | Score 62 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #176 | |
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
72
Fundamentally Qualified
+23.3 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
68
Elite Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
49
Middle
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
52
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
27 tracked managers disclosed a position for this period.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
MSFT score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
MSFT intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 72.3 on 2026-09-11, up 23.3 from 49 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 68.3 on 2026-09-11. Fundamental Momentum 49.2 on 2026-09-11. Elite Investor Activity 51.9 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 51.9 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 72.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+23.3 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 68.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 49.2 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 51.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
MSFT price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +23.8%
- 1Y change
- -0.3%
- 3Y change
- +50.9%
- 5Y change
- +69.2%
- Max change
- +227.1%
Last stored close $495.63 · -0.3% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
93
New holders
62
Increasing
15
Reducing
13
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2023-09-30 · Public 12/27/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive weakened
Business Quality qualification score moved from 49.0 to 42.6.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 73 to 52 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 64 to 73 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
2 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 50 to 64 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
2 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 69 to 44 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers exited positions
2 tracked managers no longer disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
2 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 100 to 70 for the reporting period ending 2024-12-31.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.