Risk Intelligence
Core Model
—
Not Available
Insufficient Data
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Suggestions
CERT · NASDAQ
CERTARA INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$7.55
+1.75%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 12/19/2023
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
CERTARA INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence limited
No Suggested Investment Score today
Risk Intelligence is unavailable
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
—
Not Available
Insufficient Data
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
—
Not Available
Insufficient Data
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
—
Not Available
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
D
44 / 100
Elevated
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
F
31 / 100
Limited Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 44 out of 100, Elevated).
Long-term view
Long-Term Potential is not available for this company, so no long-term reading is shown.
Ownership view
No disclosed ownership reading is available at the required confidence, so ownership is left blank rather than estimated.
Valuation view
CERTARA INC reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
CERTARA INC reads 31 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 0.9% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare CERT with other companiesResearch Collections
This company does not currently satisfy any collection rule. That is a stored research result, not a judgement about the business.
Browse collections60-Second Brief
Too few stored readings exist for this company to summarise honestly.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
Not currently in the Suggested Investment ranking
Risk Intelligence is unavailable. A composite score is only published when every required input is available for this company. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap, and exclusion from the ranking is not a sell instruction.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Ranking updated September 12, 2026
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 44 · Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 31 · Limited Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Why this company scores the way it does
This company does not currently hold a stored Suggested Investment Score, so no contribution breakdown can be shown.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
44/ 100
Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
67
Attractive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
22
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
61
Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
16
Expensive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
CERTARA INC reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current EV/EBITDA 54.0x · own median 33.8x · peer median 11.3x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
31/ 100
Limited Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Dividend Quality
—
Not Applicable — No Dividend
Dividend reliability
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
30
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
20
Limited Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
25
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
CERTARA INC reads 31 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 0.9% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $0.00 · net repurchases $75.00M · total returned $75.00M · 137% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | Not ranked | No stored score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | Not ranked | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
We are a global leader in biosimulation science, technology, and consulting services for using Model-Informed Drug Development ("MIDD") in the global biopharmaceutical and biotech industry. MIDD is an approach that utilizes biological and statistical models derived from preclinical, clinical, and evidence data to inform decision-making in drug research and development, and commercialization. Biosimulation is a critical component of MIDD that uses computer-aided mathematical simulation of biological processes and systems to understand the action of a drug in a human body or a population of humans.
Biosimulation and hereby MIDD can increase the probability of success in bringing a new drug to market, accelerate its development and decrease the costs of drug development. There are many examples of currently approved drugs where models were successfully used in discovery, preclinical, first-in-human dose predictions, clinical trial simulations and protocol design, and for drug interaction label claims. Biosimulation is also used to support drug development beyond the approval stage; examples include determining formulation or manufacturing changes and label extensions. In addition, MIDD strategies are increasingly utilized to help predict commercial success, a critical part of the drug research and development process as new products must be both approved by regulators and adopted by the market.
The diagram below shows the different areas of expertise that come together to enable MIDD. Our organization has been purposefully designed to include all these capabilities to collectively enable a new model of drug research and development for our clients.
Our goal is to enable the life sciences industry to use data, modeling, and analytics to make better decisions during drug research, development and commercialization to increase productivity rates and vastly reduce development costs. The pharmaceutical industry spends more than $290 billion annually on research and development. On average, it takes 10-15 years and costs $6.2 billion to develop one new medicine, including the cost of failures. Drug development is necessarily a highly regulated process involving the collection of vast amounts of laboratory, clinical and evidence data, and there are many failures at every step along the way that add to total cost.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 26, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
46
Restricted
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Too few tracked managers disclosed a position to describe consensus.
Intelligence history
Not enough stored history to chart CERT yet. A company needs at least two published research or ownership periods before a trend can be shown.
Share price
CERT price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +15.1%
- 1Y change
- -33.1%
- 3Y change
- -47.5%
- 5Y change
- -79.1%
- Max change
- -80.2%
Last stored close $7.55 · -33.1% over the selected range · 64 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
5
New holders
4
Increasing
0
Reducing
1
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2022-12-31 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
No qualifying changes are recorded for this company in the stored research and filing history.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.