Risk Intelligence
Core Model
D+
53 / 100
Restricted
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Suggestions
EXE · NASDAQ
EXPAND ENERGY CORP
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$94.83
-2.11%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Watch
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
EXPAND ENERGY CORP
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
31 / 100
Rank #592 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 86% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
F
31 / 100
Not Scored
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
B−
71 / 100
Not Scored
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Above average on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
B
79 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Above average on this measure.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
B
78 / 100
Very Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Above average on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
D
43 / 100
Moderate Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
- Attractive valuation: the stock reads 78 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence (Very Attractive) relative to its own history and comparable companies.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
EXPAND ENERGY CORP scores 31 on Long-Term Potential (F), described by the research model as not scored. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 79 (B): Positive disclosed activity. 4 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 78 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 43 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.3% a year and a share count rising about 19.5% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare EXE with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
EXPAND ENERGY CORP (EXE) scores 31 out of 100 and ranks #592 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 86% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 53 out of 100 (D+), recorded as restricted. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 31 out of 100 (F), recorded as not scored. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 71 out of 100 (B−), recorded as not scored. Above average on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 79 out of 100 (B), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Above average on this measure.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 78 out of 100 (B), recorded as Very Attractive. EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 78 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 43 out of 100 (D), recorded as Moderate Capital Returns. EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 43 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.3% a year and a share count rising about 19.5% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is good. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Risk Intelligence and Long-Term Potential remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads very attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Pro Investor Score
Pro Investor Score™
31 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #592 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 86%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
370Rank weakened by 370 positions. Rank weakened by 370 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 53
- Long-Term Potential
- 31
- Fundamental Momentum
- 71
- Ownership Intelligence
- 79
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
79 / 100 · Positive · 20% of the Pro Investor Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 75 · Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 91 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Improving fundamentals
Recent reported business trends rank among the strongest in the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Risk Intelligence is less favourable
Defensive characteristics rank below the middle of the qualified universe.
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 78 · Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 43 · Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 31.1 of the stored score (31.1).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 2.5 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 8 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 53 · 8% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 1.4 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 5 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 31 · 5% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 17.1 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 86 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 71 · 55% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 10.0 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 50 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 79 · 32% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Fundamental Momentum — 86 percentile, adding 17.1 points.
What deserves attention
- Long-Term Potential — 5 percentile, adding only 1.4 of a possible 30 points.
- Risk Intelligence — 8 percentile, adding only 2.5 of a possible 30 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 78 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 43 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.3% a year and a share count rising about 19.5% a year.
Pro Investor Intelligence™
Reported by insiders, large shareholders and professional funds. Shown beside our research, never blended into it.
Loading professional-investor activity…
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
78/ 100
Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
51
Reasonable
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
79
Very Attractive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
92
Very Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
100
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 78 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current EV/Sales 1.8x · own median 2.0x · peer median 2.6x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
43/ 100
Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Dividend Quality
62
Favorable Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
5
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
76
Strong Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
5
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
EXPAND ENERGY CORP reads 43 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 10.3% a year and a share count rising about 19.5% a year.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $765.00M · net repurchases $581.00M · total returned $1.35B · 52% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Pro Investor Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #592 | Score 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #592 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Unless the context otherwise requires, references to "Expand Energy," the "Company," "us," "we," "our" and "ours" in this report are to Expand Energy Corporation together with its subsidiaries. Our principal executive offices are located at 6100 North Western Avenue, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73118, and our main telephone number at that location is (405) 848-8000.
Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S., based on net daily production, and is focused on responsibly developing an abundant supply of natural gas, oil and NGL to expand energy access for all. Our operations are located in Louisiana and Texas in the Haynesville and Bossier Shales ("Haynesville"), in Pennsylvania in the Marcellus Shale ("Northeast Appalachia") and in West Virginia and Ohio in the Marcellus and Utica Shales ("Southwest Appalachia") and include working interests in approximately 6,600 gross natural gas and oil wells.
On October 1, 2024, we completed the Southwestern Merger, creating a premier energy company that we believe is underpinned by a leading natural gas portfolio adjacent to the highest demand markets, premium inventory, a resilient financial foundation and an investment grade balance sheet. We believe that we are uniquely positioned to deliver affordable, lower-carbon energy to meet growing domestic and international demand while creating sustainable value for stakeholders. Since completing our merger with Southwestern, we’ve continued to focus on strengthening our balance sheet by reducing total debt by approximately $1.2 billion and upsized our 2025 Credit Facility capacity to $3.5 billion. In 2025, we joined the S&P 500 index and returned approximately $865 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
We make available, free of charge on our website at expandenergy.com , our annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments to those reports as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or furnish it to, the SEC. From time to time, we also post announcements, updates, events, investor information and presentations on our website in addition to copies of all recent news releases. Documents and information on our website are not incorporated by reference herein.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 18, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
53
Fundamentally Qualified
+5.4 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
31
Weak Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
71
Accelerating
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
75
Upper range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
Only 4 tracked managers disclosed a position — treat as limited coverage.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
EXE score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
EXE intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 53.2 on 2026-09-11, up 5.4 from 47.8 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 30.5 on 2026-09-11. Fundamental Momentum 70.9 on 2026-09-11. Elite Investor Activity 75 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 75 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 53.2 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+5.4 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 30.5 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 70.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 75 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
EXE price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- -11.0%
- 1Y change
- +0.8%
- 3Y change
- +17.9%
- 5Y change
- +90.7%
- Max change
- +174.6%
Last stored close $94.83 · +0.8% over the selected range · 64 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
9
New holders
8
Increasing
1
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2022-12-31 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 36.6 to 47.8.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 40 to 75 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 63 to 40 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 75 to 63 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 67 to 75 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 100 to 67 for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
2 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2024-09-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.