Risk Intelligence
Core Model
B+
80 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Above average on this measure.
Suggestions
LLY · NYSE
ELI LILLY & Co
Private betaHealth Care · Pharmaceuticals
$1,116
-0.65%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Defensively Qualified
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
ELI LILLY & Co
Health Care · Pharmaceuticals · Data confidence good
70 / 100
Rank #93 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 14% · Worth a Closer Look
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
C
63 / 100
Elite Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
C
65 / 100
Middle
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C
61 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
D
44 / 100
Elevated
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
C
62 / 100
Favorable Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 44 out of 100, Elevated).
Long-term view
ELI LILLY & Co scores 63 on Long-Term Potential (C), described by the research model as elite compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 61 (C): Positive disclosed activity. 21 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
ELI LILLY & Co reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
ELI LILLY & Co reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 11.6% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare LLY with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
ELI LILLY & Co (LLY) scores 70 out of 100 and ranks #93 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 14% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is worth a closer look.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 80 out of 100 (B+), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Above average on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 63 out of 100 (C), recorded as elite compounder. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 65 out of 100 (C), recorded as middle. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 61 out of 100 (C), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation is currently the main point of caution: Valuation Intelligence reads 44 out of 100 (D), recorded as Elevated. ELI LILLY & Co reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 62 out of 100 (C), recorded as Favorable Capital Returns. ELI LILLY & Co reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 11.6% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 44 out of 100, Elevated). Data confidence for this company is good.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Risk Intelligence. Separately from the score, valuation reads elevated at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Pro Investor Score
Pro Investor Score™
70 / 100
Worth a Closer Look
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #93 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 25%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
53Rank weakened by 53 positions. Rank weakened by 53 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 80
- Long-Term Potential
- 63
- Fundamental Momentum
- 65
- Ownership Intelligence
- 61
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
61 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Pro Investor Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 52 · Moderately Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 81 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Strong risk profile
Risk Intelligence ranks in the top 8% of qualified companies, with normal_risk price risk.
What holds it back
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence disagrees
Different owner groups point in different directions, so the combined reading is best read as mixed rather than uniformly favourable.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 44 · Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 62 · Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 70.0 of the stored score (70.0).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 27.9 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 93 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 80 · 40% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 22.5 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 75 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 63 · 32% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 15.0 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 75 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 65 · 21% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 4.7 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 24 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 61 · 7% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Risk Intelligence — 93 percentile, adding 27.9 points.
- Long-Term Potential — 75 percentile, adding 22.5 points.
- Fundamental Momentum — 75 percentile, adding 15.0 points.
What deserves attention
- Ownership Intelligence — 24 percentile, adding only 4.7 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — ELI LILLY & Co reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — ELI LILLY & Co reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 11.6% a year.
Pro Investor Intelligence™
Reported by insiders, large shareholders and professional funds. Shown beside our research, never blended into it.
Loading professional-investor activity…
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
44/ 100
Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
42
Elevated
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
10
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
37
Elevated
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
100
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
ELI LILLY & Co reads 44 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current EV/Sales 13.8x · own median 8.6x · peer median 3.6x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
62/ 100
Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
90
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
47
Moderate Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
76
Strong Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
42
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
ELI LILLY & Co reads 62 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 11.6% a year.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $5.78B · net repurchases $6.17B · total returned $11.96B · 66% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Pro Investor Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #93 | Score 70 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #93 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Eli Lilly and Company (referred to as the company, Lilly, we, or us) was incorporated in 1901 in Indiana to succeed to the drug manufacturing business founded in Indianapolis, Indiana, in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly. We discover, develop, manufacture, and market products in a single business segment—human pharmaceutical products.
Our purpose is to unite caring with discovery to create medicines that make life better for people around the world. Our long-term success depends on our ability to continually discover or acquire, develop, and commercialize innovative medicines.
We manufacture and distribute our products through facilities in the United States (U.S.), including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. Our products are sold in approximately 90 countries.
In collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim, a long-acting human insulin analog for the treatment of diabetes.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 12, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
80
Fundamentally Qualified
+7.2 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
63
Elite Compounder
+4.4 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
65
Accelerating
+16.5 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
52
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
21 tracked managers disclosed a position for this period.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
LLY score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
LLY intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 80.2 on 2026-09-11, up 7.2 from 73 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 63 on 2026-09-11, up 4.4 from 58.6 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 64.5 on 2026-09-11, up 16.5 from 48 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 52.4 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 52.4 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 80.2 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+7.2 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 63 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+4.4 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 64.5 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+16.5 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 52.4 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
LLY price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +14.5%
- 1Y change
- +48.5%
- 3Y change
- +90.2%
- 5Y change
- +405.2%
- Max change
- +811.4%
Last stored close $1115.70 · +48.5% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- The IA Compounder research model identifies strong compounding characteristics.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
74
New holders
50
Increasing
8
Reducing
12
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2023-09-30 · Public 12/27/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 73.0 to 76.8.
- Risk Intelligence
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Normal risk.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 58.6 to 51.2.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 48.0 to 67.5.
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 71.5 to 73.0.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 51.4 to 58.6.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 66.8 to 48.0.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
3 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 35 to 56 for the reporting period ending 2025-09-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 44 to 35 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.