The four parts
A usable thesis fits on one page.
- What the business does and how it makes money
- Why you believe it can be durably stronger in five to ten years
- What evidence supports that, and where the evidence is missing
- What specific developments would tell you the thesis is wrong
Write the falsification condition first
Without a pre-written condition for being wrong, any decline becomes a buying opportunity and any rise becomes confirmation. The falsification condition is the part that makes the thesis honest.
Revisit on results, not on price
Review a thesis when the company reports, not when the price moves. Price movement is not evidence about the business.
Why this matters
A written thesis is the only way to know later whether you were right for the right reasons.
Terms used in this lesson
- Falsification
- The pre-written condition that would tell you your investment reasoning was wrong.
- Written by
- Suggested Investments Research Team
- Content type
- Educational article
- Published
- 2026-09-13
- Last reviewed
- 2026-09-13
Sources and methodology
- Intelligent Accumulation methodology — Suggested InvestmentsPrimary source
Educational content only. This lesson is not investment, tax or legal advice and does not recommend buying or selling any specific investment. All investing involves the risk of loss.