Risk Intelligence
66 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
CF · NYSE
Sector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$133.07
-1.51%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
67 / 100
Rank #117 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 17% · Watch
66 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
79 / 100
Elite Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Above average on this measure.
63 / 100
Deteriorating
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
69 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
76 / 100
Very Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Above average on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
89 / 100
Exceptional Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Among the strongest readings on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC scores 79 on Long-Term Potential (B), described by the research model as elite compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 69 (C+): Positive disclosed activity. 4 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 76 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 89 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 5.2% a year and a share count falling about 6.6% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare CF with other companiesAppears in
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) scores 67 out of 100 and ranks #117 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 17% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is watch.
Risk Intelligence reads 66 out of 100 (C+), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-Term Potential reads 79 out of 100 (B), recorded as elite compounder. Above average on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum reads 63 out of 100 (C), recorded as deteriorating. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Ownership Intelligence reads 69 out of 100 (C+), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 76 out of 100 (B), recorded as Very Attractive. CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 76 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 89 out of 100 (A−), recorded as Exceptional Capital Returns. CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 89 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 5.2% a year and a share count falling about 6.6% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
The Fundamental Momentum research model shows deterioration. Data confidence for this company is good.
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Separately from the score, valuation reads very attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
67 / 100
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
69 / 100 · Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
Coverage: Good
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Exceptional long-term potential
Stored profitability, capital efficiency and reinvestment readings rank near the top of the qualified universe.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 76 · Very Attractive
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 89 · Exceptional Capital Returns
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 67.4 of the stored score (67.4).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 16.5 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 55 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 66 · 25% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 29.5 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 98 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 79 · 44% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 14.5 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 73 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 63 · 22% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 6.9 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 35 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 69 · 10% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodologyAdditional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
Stored snapshots only
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Very Attractive
58
Reasonable
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
—
Not Available
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
No comparable cohort of at least eight companies with the same usable ratios.
85
Very Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
90
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 76 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current EV/Sales 2.7x · own median 2.7x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Exceptional Capital Returns
86
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
93
Exceptional Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
97
Exceptional Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
76
Strong Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
92
Exceptional Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC reads 89 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 5.2% a year and a share count falling about 6.6% a year.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $314.00M · net repurchases $957.00M · total returned $1.27B · 67% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
| Today | #117 | Score 67 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #117 | |
In the company’s own words
All references to "CF Holdings," "we," "us," "our" and "the Company," refer to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. and its subsidiaries, except where the context makes clear that the reference is to CF Industries Holdings, Inc. only and not its subsidiaries. All references to "CF Industries" refer to CF Industries, Inc., a 100% owned subsidiary of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. References to tons refer to short tons. Notes referenced throughout this document refer to consolidated financial statement note disclosures that are found in Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Our mission is to provide clean energy to feed and fuel the world sustainably. With our employees focused on safe and reliable operations, environmental stewardship, and disciplined capital and corporate management, we are on a path to decarbonize our ammonia production network – the world’s largest – to enable low-carbon hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement and other industrial activities. Our value chain consists of manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, an extensive storage, transportation and distribution network in North America, and logistics capabilities enabling a global reach. In July 2025, we completed a significant decarbonization project at our Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex to enable the production of low-carbon ammonia. Additionally, we are executing further decarbonization projects in our existing network and constructing a greenfield low-carbon ammonia plant at our Blue Point complex to drive our strategy to leverage our unique capabilities to accelerate the world’s transition to clean energy.
Our principal customers are cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers and industrial users. Our core product is anhydrous ammonia (ammonia), which contains 82% nitrogen and 18% hydrogen. Products derived from ammonia that are most often used as nitrogen fertilizers include granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN). AN is also used extensively by the commercial explosives industry as a component of explosives. Products derived from ammonia that are sold primarily to industrial customers include diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia. In addition, our low-carbon products are expected to be used for existing and new applications, such as power generation and steel production in Japan, and to help customers reduce the economic impact of European regulations on the price of carbon.
six U.S. manufacturing facilities, located in Donaldsonville, Louisiana (the largest ammonia production complex in the world); Sergeant Bluff, Iowa (our Port Neal complex); Yazoo City, Mississippi; Claremore, Oklahoma (our Verdigris complex); Woodward, Oklahoma; and Waggaman, Louisiana. The Waggaman facility is wholly owned by us, and the other five U.S. manufacturing facilities are wholly owned directly or indirectly by CF Industries Nitrogen, LLC (CFN), of which we own approximately 89% and CHS Inc. (CHS) owns the remainder;
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 25, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
66
Fundamentally Qualified
-5.7 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
79
Elite Compounder
+19.4 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
63
Accelerating
+30.4 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
63
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
Only 4 tracked managers disclosed a position — treat as limited coverage.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
CF intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 65.9 on 2026-09-11, down 5.7 from 71.6 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 79.3 on 2026-09-11, up 19.4 from 59.9 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 62.9 on 2026-09-11, up 30.4 from 32.5 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 62.5 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 62.5 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 65.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-5.7 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 79.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+19.4 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 62.9 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+30.4 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 62.5 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
Last stored close $133.07 · +57.6% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Risk and uncertainty
Public filings · descriptive only
Reporting holders
1
New holders
1
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2016-12-31 · Public 12/22/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Higher risk.
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 59.9 to 71.9.
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 32.5 to 66.0.
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 71.4 to 59.9.
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 62.9 to 32.5.
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 38 to 63 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 63 to 38 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 88 to 63 for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 63 to 88 for the reporting period ending 2025-09-30.
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 88 to 63 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.