Risk Intelligence
Core Model
—
Not Available
Not Scored
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Suggestions
AJG · NYSE
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$240.32
-1.23%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO
Sector unavailable · Data confidence limited
No Suggested Investment Score today
Risk Intelligence is unavailable
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
—
Not Available
Not Scored
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
—
Not Available
Not Scored
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
—
Not Available
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
This reading is not available for this company yet.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
D
43 / 100
Elevated
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
D+
53 / 100
Moderate Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 43 out of 100, Elevated).
Long-term view
Long-Term Potential is not available for this company, so no long-term reading is shown.
Ownership view
No disclosed ownership reading is available at the required confidence, so ownership is left blank rather than estimated.
Valuation view
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO reads 43 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO reads 53 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 5.8% a year and a share count rising about 4.4% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare AJG with other companiesResearch Collections
This company does not currently satisfy any collection rule. That is a stored research result, not a judgement about the business.
Browse collections60-Second Brief
Too few stored readings exist for this company to summarise honestly.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
Not currently in the Suggested Investment ranking
Risk Intelligence is unavailable. A composite score is only published when every required input is available for this company. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap, and exclusion from the ranking is not a sell instruction.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Ranking updated September 12, 2026
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 43 · Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 53 · Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Why this company scores the way it does
This company does not currently hold a stored Suggested Investment Score, so no contribution breakdown can be shown.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
43/ 100
Elevated
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
60
Reasonable
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
38
Elevated
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
40
Elevated
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
25
Expensive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO reads 43 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Elevated. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 39.2x · own median 32.3x · peer median 12.5x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
53/ 100
Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
85
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
42
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
15
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
88
Exceptional Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
5
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
ARTHUR J GALLAGHER & CO reads 53 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 5.8% a year and a share count rising about 4.4% a year.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $693.40M · net repurchases $268.40M · total returned $961.80M · 42% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | Not ranked | No stored score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | Not ranked | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries, collectively referred to herein as we, our, us or Gallagher, are engaged in providing insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals around the world. We believe that our major strength is our ability to deliver comprehensively structured insurance, reinsurance and risk management solutions, superior claim outcomes and comprehensive consulting services to our clients.
Our brokerage segment operations provide brokerage and consulting services to entities of all types, including commercial, nonprofit, public sector entities, insurance companies and insurance capital providers, and to a lesser extent, individuals, in the areas of insurance and reinsurance placements, risk of loss management, and management of employer sponsored benefit programs. Our risk management segment operations provide contract claim settlement, claim administration, loss control services and risk management consulting for commercial, nonprofit, captive and public sector entities, and various other organizations that choose to self-insure property/casualty coverages or choose to use a third-party claims management organization rather than the claim services provided by an underwriting enterprise.
We do not assume underwriting risk on a net basis, other than with respect to de minimis amounts necessary to provide minimum or regulatory capital to organize captives, pools, specialized underwriters or risk-retention groups. Rather, capital necessary for covering events of loss is provided by "underwriting enterprises," which we define as insurance companies, reinsurance companies and various other risk-taking entities, including intermediaries of underwriting enterprises, that we do not own or control.
Since our founding in 1927, we have grown from a one-person insurance agency to the world’s third largest insurance broker/risk manager based on revenues according to Business Insurance magazine’s June/July 2025 edition, and one of the world’s largest property/casualty third party claims administrators, according to Business Insurance magazine’s April/May 2025 edition.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 17, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
Long-Term Potential
Research model
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
67
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
Only 3 tracked managers disclosed a position — treat as limited coverage.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
AJG score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
AJG intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Elite Investor Activity 66.7 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 66.7 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Elite Investor Activity 66.7 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
AJG price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +18.4%
- 1Y change
- -19.1%
- 3Y change
- +8.0%
- 5Y change
- +68.9%
- Max change
- +172.4%
Last stored close $240.32 · -19.1% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
9
New holders
6
Increasing
0
Reducing
2
Exiting
1
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2022-12-31 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 50 to 67 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 38 to 50 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 63 to 38 for the reporting period ending 2025-09-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 38 to 63 for the reporting period ending 2025-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 88 to 38 for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 100 to 88 for the reporting period ending 2024-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
4 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2024-09-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.