Risk Intelligence
Core Model
C
60 / 100
Insufficient Data
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Suggestions
BLBD · NASDAQ
BLUE BIRD CORP
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$61.84
-0.34%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 12/18/2023
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
BLUE BIRD CORP
Sector unavailable · Data confidence partial
53 / 100
Rank #302 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 44% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
D+
52 / 100
Insufficient Data
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
C−
56 / 100
Insufficient Data
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
A+
100 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
B
77 / 100
Very Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Above average on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
F
29 / 100
Limited Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
- Attractive valuation: the stock reads 77 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence (Very Attractive) relative to its own history and comparable companies.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
BLUE BIRD CORP scores 52 on Long-Term Potential (D+), described by the research model as insufficient data. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 100 (A+): Positive disclosed activity. 2 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
BLUE BIRD CORP reads 77 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
BLUE BIRD CORP reads 29 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 5.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare BLBD with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
BLUE BIRD CORP (BLBD) scores 53 out of 100 and ranks #302 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 44% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 60 out of 100 (C), recorded as insufficient data. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 52 out of 100 (D+), recorded as insufficient data. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 56 out of 100 (C−), recorded as insufficient data. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 100 out of 100 (A+), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 77 out of 100 (B), recorded as Very Attractive. BLUE BIRD CORP reads 77 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 29 out of 100 (F), recorded as Limited Capital Returns. BLUE BIRD CORP reads 29 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 5.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is partial. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Ownership Intelligence. Long-Term Potential and Fundamental Momentum remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads very attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
53 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #302 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 44%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
—Rank unchanged. Rank unchanged.
- Risk Intelligence
- 60
- Long-Term Potential
- 52
- Fundamental Momentum
- 56
- Ownership Intelligence
- 100
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
100 / 100 · Strong · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Partial Coverage
- Elite Investor Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Institutional Activity
- 100 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
No reliably mapped professional-manager filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Strong ownership evidence
Disclosed institutional activity evidence is favourable relative to other qualified companies. Ownership evidence is descriptive and reported with a delay.
What holds it back
Risk Intelligence is less favourable
Defensive characteristics rank below the middle of the qualified universe.
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
Ownership Intelligence — Partial Coverage
Only part of the ownership evidence is available for this company. Missing evidence is left missing rather than replaced with a neutral value.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Good. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 77 · Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 29 · Limited Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 52.8 of the stored score (52.8).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 9.8 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 33 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 60 · 19% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 12.8 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 43 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 52 · 24% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 11.6 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 58 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 56 · 22% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 18.6 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 93 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 100 · 35% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Ownership Intelligence — 93 percentile, adding 18.6 points.
What deserves attention
- Risk Intelligence — 33 percentile, adding only 9.8 of a possible 30 points.
- Long-Term Potential — 43 percentile, adding only 12.8 of a possible 30 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — BLUE BIRD CORP reads 77 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — BLUE BIRD CORP reads 29 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 5.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
77/ 100
Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
63
Attractive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
—
Not Available
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
No comparable cohort of at least eight companies with the same usable ratios.
Earnings & cash flow
84
Very Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
88
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
BLUE BIRD CORP reads 77 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 27, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 7.0x · own median 17.3x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
29/ 100
Limited Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
—
Not Applicable — No Dividend
Dividend reliability
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
Buyback Effectiveness
5
Limited Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
The company spends on share repurchases, but much of that activity offsets share issuance rather than materially reducing the share count.
Dilution Control
5
Limited Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
93
Exceptional Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
5
Limited Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
BLUE BIRD CORP reads 29 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Limited Capital Returns), reflecting a share count rising about 5.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
This company spent cash repurchasing stock, but the share count did not fall meaningfully because it also issued shares. Repurchase spending alone did not increase existing shareholders' ownership.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $0.00 · net repurchases $24.55M · total returned $24.55M · 16% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 27, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #302 | Score 53 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #302 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
The Company (formerly Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp.) was incorporated in Delaware on September 24, 2013 as a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC. On February 24, 2015, the Company consummated a business combination (the "Business Combination"), pursuant to which the Company acquired all of the outstanding capital stock of School Bus Holdings Inc., a Delaware corporation ("School Bus Holdings" or "SBH") from The Traxis Group, B.V. (the "Seller"). The total purchase price was paid in a combination of cash in the amount of $100.0 million and 12,000,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, $0.0001 par value (the "Common Stock"), valued at $120.0 million.
In connection with the closing of the Business Combination, the Company changed its name from Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. to Blue Bird Corporation. Unless expressly stated otherwise in this Report, Blue Bird Corporation is referred to as "Blue Bird," the "Company," "we," "our" or "us," and includes its consolidated subsidiaries.
In May 2016, the Seller, ASP BB Holdings LLC, a Delaware limited liability company ("ASP"), and the Company entered into an agreement pursuant to which the Seller agreed to sell the 12,000,000 shares of Common Stock of the Company owned by Seller (the "Transaction Shares") to ASP. ASP acquired 7,000,000 Transaction Shares at an initial closing on June 3, 2016 for an amount in cash equal to $10.10 per share and 5,000,000 Transaction Shares at a second closing on June 8, 2016 for an amount in cash equal to $11.00 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of $125.7 million. There were no proceeds to the Company from this transaction.
The following discussion of our business describes the business historically operated by School Bus Holdings and its subsidiaries under the "Blue Bird" name as an independent enterprise prior to the Business Combination and as subsidiaries of Blue Bird Corporation after the Business Combination.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed November 24, 2025. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
60
Fundamentally Qualified
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
52
Ordinary Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
56
Middle
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Too few tracked managers disclosed a position to describe consensus.
Intelligence history
Not enough stored history to chart BLBD yet. A company needs at least two published research or ownership periods before a trend can be shown.
Share price
BLBD price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +15.6%
- 1Y change
- +6.1%
- 3Y change
- +202.1%
- 5Y change
- +207.5%
- Max change
- +168.5%
Last stored close $61.84 · +6.1% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
6
New holders
5
Increasing
1
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2023-09-30 · Public 12/18/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
No qualifying changes are recorded for this company in the stored research and filing history.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.