Risk Intelligence
Core Model
B−
74 / 100
Insufficient Data
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Above average on this measure.
Suggestions
CHDN · NASDAQ
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$83.86
+1.34%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 12/19/2023
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence partial
55 / 100
Rank #263 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 38% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
C
63 / 100
Insufficient Data
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
F
26 / 100
Insufficient Data
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C+
67 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
B−
74 / 100
Very Attractive
Is today's price reasonable?
Above average on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
B+
81 / 100
Strong Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Above average on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
- Attractive valuation: the stock reads 74 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence (Very Attractive) relative to its own history and comparable companies.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC scores 63 on Long-Term Potential (C), described by the research model as insufficient data. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 67 (C+): Positive disclosed activity. 2 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 74 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 81 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Strong Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 2.4% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare CHDN with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
- Strong Capital Returnerssince 2026-09-12
- Effective Buyback Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Dividend Growth Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Attractive Valuationsince 2026-09-12
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC (CHDN) scores 55 out of 100 and ranks #263 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 38% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 74 out of 100 (B−), recorded as insufficient data. Above average on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 63 out of 100 (C), recorded as insufficient data. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 26 out of 100 (F), recorded as insufficient data. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 67 out of 100 (C+), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears favourable: Valuation Intelligence reads 74 out of 100 (B−), recorded as Very Attractive. CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 74 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 81 out of 100 (B+), recorded as Strong Capital Returns. CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 81 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Strong Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 2.4% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is partial. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Fundamental Momentum remains the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads very attractive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
55 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #263 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 38%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
—Rank unchanged. Rank unchanged.
- Risk Intelligence
- 74
- Long-Term Potential
- 63
- Fundamental Momentum
- 26
- Ownership Intelligence
- 67
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
67 / 100 · Positive · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Partial Coverage
- Elite Investor Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Institutional Activity
- 67 · Positive
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
No reliably mapped professional-manager filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is positive.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Strong risk profile
Risk Intelligence ranks in the top 20% of qualified companies, with lower_risk price risk.
What holds it back
Fundamental Momentum is softer
Reported business trends rank below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
Ownership Intelligence — Partial Coverage
Only part of the ownership evidence is available for this company. Missing evidence is left missing rather than replaced with a neutral value.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Good. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 74 · Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 81 · Strong Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 55.0 of the stored score (55.0).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 24.2 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 81 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 74 · 44% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 22.4 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 75 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 63 · 41% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 2.0 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 10 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 26 · 4% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 6.4 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 32 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 67 · 12% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Risk Intelligence — 81 percentile, adding 24.2 points.
- Long-Term Potential — 75 percentile, adding 22.4 points.
What deserves attention
- Fundamental Momentum — 10 percentile, adding only 2.0 of a possible 20 points.
- Ownership Intelligence — 32 percentile, adding only 6.4 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 74 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 81 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Strong Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 2.4% a year.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
74/ 100
Very Attractive
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
92
Very Attractive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
51
Reasonable
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
79
Very Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
69
Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 74 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Very Attractive. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 14.1x · own median 22.8x · peer median 17.5x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
81/ 100
Strong Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
87
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
79
Strong Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
73
Strong Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
93
Exceptional Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
59
Favorable Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
CHURCHILL DOWNS INC reads 81 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Strong Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 2.4% a year.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $31.60M · net repurchases $86.90M · total returned $118.50M · 21% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #263 | Score 55 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #263 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Churchill Downs Incorporated ("CDI" or the "Company") has been creating extraordinary entertainment experiences for over 150 years, beginning with the Company’s most iconic and enduring asset, the Kentucky Derby. Headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, CDI has expanded through the acquisition, development, and operation of live and historical racing entertainment venues, the growth of the online wagering businesses, and the acquisition, development, and operation of regional casino gaming properties.
The Company manages its business through three reportable segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. We aggregate our other businesses as well as certain corporate operations in All Other. We report net revenue and operating expense associated with these reportable segments and other information about these segments in Part II, Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, contained within this Report. Further discussion of segment financial information, and our planned investments in segment properties, is set forth in Part II, Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations contained within this Report.
The Live and Historical Racing segment includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing related revenue and expenses at Churchill Downs Racetrack and our historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Our Live and Historical Racing properties earn commissions primarily from pari-mutuel wagering on live and historical races, simulcast fees earned from other wagering sites, fees from racing event-related services including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, other miscellaneous services, and revenue from food and beverage services.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 25, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
74
Fundamentally Qualified
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
63
Elite Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
26
Deteriorating
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Too few tracked managers disclosed a position to describe consensus.
Intelligence history
Not enough stored history to chart CHDN yet. A company needs at least two published research or ownership periods before a trend can be shown.
Share price
CHDN price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- -0.3%
- 1Y change
- -14.8%
- 3Y change
- -28.3%
- 5Y change
- -24.6%
- Max change
- +26.0%
Last stored close $83.86 · -14.8% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
7
New holders
6
Increasing
0
Reducing
1
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2022-12-31 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
No qualifying changes are recorded for this company in the stored research and filing history.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.