Risk Intelligence
Core Model
B
76 / 100
Fundamentally Qualified
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Above average on this measure.
Suggestions
CMG · NYSE
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$36.20
+0.19%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Defensively Qualified
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
68 / 100
Rank #109 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 16% · Watch
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
B−
72 / 100
Weak Compounder
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Above average on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
F
32 / 100
Middle
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
A−
85 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
D+
53 / 100
Reasonable
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
C−
56 / 100
Moderate Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC scores 72 on Long-Term Potential (B−), described by the research model as weak compounder. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 85 (A−): Positive disclosed activity. 6 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 53 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 56 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a share count falling about 2.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare CMG with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) scores 68 out of 100 and ranks #109 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 16% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is watch.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 76 out of 100 (B), recorded as fundamentally qualified. Above average on this measure.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 72 out of 100 (B−), recorded as weak compounder. Above average on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 32 out of 100 (F), recorded as middle. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 85 out of 100 (A−), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears reasonable: Valuation Intelligence reads 53 out of 100 (D+), recorded as Reasonable. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 53 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 56 out of 100 (C−), recorded as Moderate Capital Returns. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 56 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a share count falling about 2.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is good. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Ownership Intelligence. Fundamental Momentum remains the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads reasonable at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Suggested Investment Score
Suggested Investment Score
68 / 100
Watch
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #109 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 25%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
66Rank weakened by 66 positions. Rank weakened by 66 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 76
- Long-Term Potential
- 72
- Fundamental Momentum
- 32
- Ownership Intelligence
- 85
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
85 / 100 · Strong · 20% of the Suggested Investment Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 83 · Strong
- Institutional Activity
- 90 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is strong.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Strong risk profile
Risk Intelligence ranks in the top 16% of qualified companies, with normal_risk price risk.
Exceptional long-term potential
Stored profitability, capital efficiency and reinvestment readings rank near the top of the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Fundamental Momentum is softer
Reported business trends rank below the qualified median.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 53 · Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 56 · Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 68.3 of the stored score (68.3).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 25.4 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 85 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 76 · 37% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 27.4 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 91 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 72 · 40% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 3.2 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 16 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 32 · 5% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 12.3 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 61 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 85 · 18% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Long-Term Potential — 91 percentile, adding 27.4 points.
- Risk Intelligence — 85 percentile, adding 25.4 points.
- Ownership Intelligence — 61 percentile, adding 12.3 points.
What deserves attention
- Fundamental Momentum — 16 percentile, adding only 3.2 of a possible 20 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 53 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 56 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a share count falling about 2.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
53/ 100
Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
88
Very Attractive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
23
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
49
Reasonable
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
42
Elevated
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 53 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades below most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 32.3x · own median 64.7x · peer median 24.0x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
56/ 100
Moderate Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
—
Not Applicable — No Dividend
Dividend reliability
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
Buyback Effectiveness
91
Exceptional Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
71
Strong Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
0
Limited Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
51
Moderate Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC reads 56 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Moderate Capital Returns), reflecting a share count falling about 2.1% a year. Direct capital returns are limited because the company continues reinvesting most of its cash.
This company currently retains rather than distributes cash through dividends. Capital Returns Intelligence therefore places more emphasis on its other measurable shareholder-return behaviors according to the frozen V1 methodology.
Distributions coincided with rising debt over this period, so part of the cash returned was not funded by the cash the business generated.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $0.00 · net repurchases $2.78B · total returned $2.78B · 177% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Suggested Investment Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #109 | Score 68 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | September 12, 2026 | |
| Highest rank | #109 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., a Delaware corporation, together with its subsidiaries ("Chipotle," "we," "us," or "our") owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a relevant menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), quesadillas, tacos, and salads. We strive to cultivate a better world by serving responsibly sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients and without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. We are passionate about providing a great guest experience and making our food more accessible to everyone while continuing to be a brand with a demonstrated purpose. Our first Chipotle restaurant opened in Denver, Colorado in 1993. Over 30 years later, our devotion to seeking out high-quality ingredients, raised with respect for animals, farmers, and the environment, remains at the core of our commitment to Food with Integrity.
As of December 31, 2025, we owned 3,938 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States ("U.S.") and 104 international Chipotle restaurants. Additionally, we had 14 international partner-operated restaurants. Partner-operated restaurants represent Chipotle restaurants over which Chipotle does not have a controlling financial interest and for which Chipotle does not directly manage day-to-day operations. This includes restaurants operated by third parties pursuant to license or franchise agreements and restaurants in which Chipotle holds a minority, non-controlling ownership interest. We manage our U.S. operations based on 11 regions and aggregate our operations to one reportable segment. Our revenue is derived from sales by our restaurants.
Chipotle is a brand with a demonstrated purpose of Cultivating a Better World. Our Recipe for Growth strategy leans into what uniquely differentiates Chipotle, with a focus on accelerating growth and sharpening competitiveness. The strategy is grounded in five key areas:
Protect and strengthen the core by driving operational and culinary excellence to deliver exceptional value for our guests;
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 4, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
76
Fundamentally Qualified
+7.7 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
72
Elite Compounder
+26 vs Jun 30, 2026
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
32
Deteriorating
-23.1 vs Jun 30, 2026
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
83
Upper range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
Only 6 tracked managers disclosed a position — treat as limited coverage.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
CMG score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
CMG intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 75.8 on 2026-09-11, up 7.7 from 68.1 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 71.7 on 2026-09-11, up 26 from 45.7 on 2026-06-30. Fundamental Momentum 31.8 on 2026-09-11, down 23.1 from 54.9 on 2026-06-30. Elite Investor Activity 83.3 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 83.3 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 75.8 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+7.7 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 71.7 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+26 vs prior period) · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 31.8 as of Sep 11, 2026 (-23.1 vs prior period) · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 83.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
CMG price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends, through Sep 11, 2026. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +11.2%
- 1Y change
- -7.1%
- 3Y change
- -6.4%
- 5Y change
- -5.6%
- Max change
- +110.9%
Last stored close $36.20 · -7.1% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- Business Quality meets the frozen IA Defensive qualification.
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
1
New holders
1
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2016-12-31 · Public 12/22/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
Price Risk category changed
Price Risk moved from Not Available to Higher risk.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder strengthened
IA Compounder research score moved from 45.7 to 60.3.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum softened
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 54.9 to 23.6.
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 63.8 to 68.1.
- Long-Term Potential
IA Compounder softened
IA Compounder research score moved from 60.4 to 45.7.
- Fundamental Momentum
Fundamental Momentum improved
Fundamental Momentum research score moved from 22.5 to 54.9.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 50 to 83 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 31 to 50 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers exited positions
2 tracked managers no longer disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-12-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 64 to 38 for the reporting period ending 2025-09-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.