Risk Intelligence
Core Model
C−
60 / 100
Insufficient Data
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Suggestions
MUSA · NYSE
MURPHY USA INC
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$523.58
-0.42%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Insufficient Data
Updated 12/22/2023
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
MURPHY USA INC
Sector unavailable · Data confidence partial
54 / 100
Rank #297 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 43% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
D+
51 / 100
Insufficient Data
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
B−
70 / 100
Insufficient Data
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Above average on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
A
92 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Among the strongest readings on this measure.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
C
61 / 100
Reasonable
Is today's price reasonable?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
B+
84 / 100
Exceptional Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Above average on this measure — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
No weakening evidence is recorded in today's readings.
Long-term view
MURPHY USA INC scores 51 on Long-Term Potential (D+), described by the research model as insufficient data. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 92 (A): Positive disclosed activity. 1 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
MURPHY USA INC reads 61 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
MURPHY USA INC reads 84 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 53.8% a year and a share count falling about 7.2% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare MUSA with other companiesAppears in
Rule-based membership
- Strong Capital Returnerssince 2026-09-12
- Effective Buyback Leaderssince 2026-09-12
- Dividend Growth Leaderssince 2026-09-12
Membership means the company satisfied a published rule on the latest research build. It is not a recommendation.
About a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
MURPHY USA INC (MUSA) scores 54 out of 100 and ranks #297 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 43% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 60 out of 100 (C−), recorded as insufficient data. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 51 out of 100 (D+), recorded as insufficient data. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 70 out of 100 (B−), recorded as insufficient data. Above average on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 92 out of 100 (A), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Among the strongest readings on this measure.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation currently appears reasonable: Valuation Intelligence reads 61 out of 100 (C), recorded as Reasonable. MURPHY USA INC reads 61 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 84 out of 100 (B+), recorded as Exceptional Capital Returns. MURPHY USA INC reads 84 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 53.8% a year and a share count falling about 7.2% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
No weakening factors are recorded in today's stored readings, and data confidence is partial. Absence of a recorded weakness is not evidence of safety.
Bottom line
Its strongest recorded evidence is Ownership Intelligence. Risk Intelligence and Long-Term Potential remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads reasonable at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Pro Investor Score
Pro Investor Score™
54 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #297 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 43%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
—Rank unchanged. Rank unchanged.
- Risk Intelligence
- 60
- Long-Term Potential
- 51
- Fundamental Momentum
- 70
- Ownership Intelligence
- 92
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
92 / 100 · Strong · 20% of the Pro Investor Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Partial Coverage
- Elite Investor Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Institutional Activity
- 92 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
No reliably mapped professional-manager filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
Improving fundamentals
Recent reported business trends rank among the strongest in the qualified universe.
Strong ownership evidence
Disclosed institutional activity evidence is favourable relative to other qualified companies. Ownership evidence is descriptive and reported with a delay.
What holds it back
Risk Intelligence is less favourable
Defensive characteristics rank below the middle of the qualified universe.
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
Ownership Intelligence — Partial Coverage
Only part of the ownership evidence is available for this company. Missing evidence is left missing rather than replaced with a neutral value.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Good. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 61 · Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 84 · Exceptional Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 53.6 of the stored score (53.6).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 9.2 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 31 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 60 · 17% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 11.9 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 40 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 51 · 22% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 17.0 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 85 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 70 · 32% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 15.5 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 78 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 92 · 29% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
- Fundamental Momentum — 85 percentile, adding 17.0 points.
- Ownership Intelligence — 78 percentile, adding 15.5 points.
What deserves attention
- Risk Intelligence — 31 percentile, adding only 9.2 of a possible 30 points.
- Long-Term Potential — 40 percentile, adding only 11.9 of a possible 30 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — MURPHY USA INC reads 61 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — MURPHY USA INC reads 84 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 53.8% a year and a share count falling about 7.2% a year.
Pro Investor Intelligence™
Reported by insiders, large shareholders and professional funds. Shown beside our research, never blended into it.
Loading professional-investor activity…
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
61/ 100
Reasonable
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Compared with its history
25
Expensive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
65
Attractive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
68
Attractive
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
99
Very Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
MURPHY USA INC reads 61 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Reasonable. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and below comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 15.6x · own median 12.2x · peer median 21.7x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
84/ 100
Exceptional Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
87
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
97
Exceptional Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
97
Exceptional Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
48
Moderate Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
91
Exceptional Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
MURPHY USA INC reads 84 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Exceptional Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 53.8% a year and a share count falling about 7.2% a year.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $45.40M · net repurchases $476.10M · total returned $521.50M · 96% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Pro Investor Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #297 | Score 54 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #297 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
Murphy USA Inc. ("Murphy USA", the "Company", "we", "us", or "our") was incorporated in Delaware on March 1, 2013 and holds, through its subsidiaries, the former U.S. retail marketing business of its former parent company, Murphy Oil Corporation ("Murphy Oil"), plus other assets and liabilities of Murphy Oil that supported the activities of the U.S. retail marketing operations. In addition, on January 29, 2021, the Company acquired Quick Chek Corporation ("QuickChek" or "QC"), a privately held convenience store chain.
Our business consists primarily of the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through a network of 1,800 retail stores located in 27 states, of which 1,649 were branded as Murphy stores and 151 were branded as QuickChek stores. The majority of our existing and new-to-industry ("NTI") retail gasoline stores operate under the brand names of Murphy USA and Murphy Express. Plans are underway to transition all existing Murphy Express branded stores to the Murphy USA brand name. These locations operate within close proximity to Walmart stores or within preferred markets across 25 states in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest regions of the United States. We also operate a combination of convenience stores and convenience stores with retail gasoline located in New Jersey and New York under the brand name of QuickChek and comprises our Northeast region. In addition, we market fuel to unbranded wholesale customers through a mixture of Company-owned and third-party product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. We are an independent publicly traded company, with low-price, high-volume fuel retail outlets selling convenience merchandise through low-cost small store formats and kiosks, as well as larger format stores that have a broader range of merchandise and food and beverage offerings which are driven by key strategic relationships and experienced management.
Our business is subject to various risks. For a description of these risks, see "Risk Factors" and "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" included elsewhere in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Information about our operations, properties and business segments, including revenues by class of products are provided on pages 32 through 47 , F- 11 , F- 15 , F- 17 , and F- 35 through F- 37 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 18, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
60
Fundamentally Qualified
No prior period to compare
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
51
Ordinary Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
70
Accelerating
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
—
Insufficient Data
No prior period to compare
Too few tracked managers disclosed a position to describe consensus.
Intelligence history
Not enough stored history to chart MUSA yet. A company needs at least two published research or ownership periods before a trend can be shown.
Share price
MUSA price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +15.2%
- 1Y change
- +33.8%
- 3Y change
- +58.9%
- 5Y change
- +237.5%
- Max change
- +370.1%
Last stored close $523.58 · +33.8% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
1
New holders
1
Increasing
0
Reducing
0
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2016-12-31 · Public 12/22/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
No qualifying changes are recorded for this company in the stored research and filing history.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.