Risk Intelligence
Core Model
C−
55 / 100
Restricted
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Suggestions
PKG · NYSE
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA
Private betaSector unavailable · Industry unavailable
$234.40
+0.86%
Close on Sep 11, 2026
Watch
Updated 6/30/2026
Long-term research evidence only. No price targets, no trading signals, no recommendations.
Investment Report Card
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA
Sector unavailable · Data confidence good
20 / 100
Rank #678 of 1,152 qualified companies
Top 98% · Not Currently Suggested
Long-Term Potential
Research Model
D
43 / 100
Not Scored
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Fundamental Momentum
Research Model
F
36 / 100
Not Scored
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
Ownership Intelligence
Supplemental Intelligence
C−
59 / 100
Positive disclosed activity
What are important owners actually doing?
Around the middle of the covered universe.
Valuation Intelligence
Research Model
F
30 / 100
Expensive
Is today's price reasonable?
Weaker than most covered companies on this measure — and valuation is researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Capital Returns Intelligence
Research Model
C−
59 / 100
Favorable Capital Returns
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Around the middle of the covered universe — and capital returns are researched separately from the Suggested Investment Score.
Why it stands out
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
What holds it back
- Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 30 out of 100, Expensive).
Long-term view
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA scores 43 on Long-Term Potential (D), described by the research model as not scored. This describes business characteristics only — it is not a forecast of future returns.
Ownership view
Disclosed ownership evidence reads 59 (C−): Positive disclosed activity. 3 tracked managers disclosed a position in the latest reporting period. Ownership filings are historical disclosures, not signals.
Valuation view
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 30 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Expensive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
Capital returns view
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 59 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 1.3% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What changed
No meaningful recorded changes in the stored history.
Risk Intelligence is a core model, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence are research models, and Ownership Intelligence is supplemental descriptive evidence. Valuation Intelligence and Capital Returns Intelligence each contribute 0% to the Suggested Investment Score. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Compare PKG with other companiesResearch Collections
This company does not currently satisfy any collection rule. That is a stored research result, not a judgement about the business.
Browse collectionsAbout a minute to read
The 60-Second Investment Brief
Written from stored research readings only. No hype. No trading signals. Just better evidence.
Why it's interesting
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) scores 20 out of 100 and ranks #678 of 1,152 qualified companies today. That places it in the top 98% of ranked companies. The stored tier for that score is not currently suggested.
Business strength
Risk Intelligence reads 55 out of 100 (C−), recorded as restricted. Around the middle of the covered universe.
Long-term opportunity
Long-Term Potential reads 43 out of 100 (D), recorded as not scored. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What's improving or weakening
Fundamental Momentum reads 36 out of 100 (F), recorded as not scored. Weaker than most covered companies on this measure.
What important owners are doing
Ownership Intelligence reads 59 out of 100 (C−), recorded as positive disclosed activity. Around the middle of the covered universe.
What kind of price you'd be paying
Valuation is currently the main point of caution: Valuation Intelligence reads 30 out of 100 (F), recorded as Expensive. PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 30 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Expensive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value. Valuation Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
How the company rewards shareholders
Capital Returns Intelligence reads 59 out of 100 (C−), recorded as Favorable Capital Returns. PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 59 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 1.3% a year. Capital Returns Intelligence is a research model and contributes nothing to the Suggested Investment Score or the daily ranking.
What could go wrong
Elevated valuation: the current market price reflects a premium to this company's historical valuation and comparable companies (Valuation Intelligence 30 out of 100, Expensive). Data confidence for this company is good.
Bottom line
No individual layer reaches the strongest band today. Risk Intelligence and Long-Term Potential and Fundamental Momentum and Ownership Intelligence remain the main area to watch. Separately from the score, valuation reads expensive at today's price.
Composite discovery model
Pro Investor Score
Pro Investor Score™
20 / 100
Not Currently Suggested
A 0–100 composite discovery score combining Risk Intelligence, Long-Term Potential, Fundamental Momentum, and Ownership Intelligence. It helps rank qualified companies for further research and does not predict future returns.
- Rank
- #678 of 694
- Percentile
- Top 98%
- Ranking updated
- September 12, 2026
383Rank weakened by 383 positions. Rank weakened by 383 positions.
- Risk Intelligence
- 55
- Long-Term Potential
- 43
- Fundamental Momentum
- 36
- Ownership Intelligence
- 59
30% contribution
30% contribution
20% contribution
20% contribution
Ownership Intelligence
59 / 100 · Moderately Positive · 20% of the Pro Investor Score
SUPPLEMENTAL / DESCRIPTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Coverage: Good
- Elite Investor Activity
- 50 · Moderately Positive
- Institutional Activity
- 80 · Strong
- Insider Activity
- Insufficient Data
- Strategic Ownership
- Insufficient Data
50% of Ownership Intelligence · 10% of the total score
Tracked professional-manager activity is moderately positive.
20% of Ownership Intelligence · 4% of the total score
Broad institutional evidence from resolved filings is strong.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No discretionary insider transactions are stored for this company, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
15% of Ownership Intelligence · 3% of the total score
No qualifying major-holder filings are stored, so this evidence is unavailable rather than neutral.
Ownership Intelligence summarizes publicly disclosed activity among professional investment managers, broader institutions, company insiders, and significant strategic owners. It adds context to investment research but is not a validated predictor of future performance. Ownership information is publicly reported with a delay; the latest applicable reporting period is 2026-06-30, publicly disclosed 9/11/2026. Congressional activity is unavailable pending legal review and contributes nothing to this reading.
Why it ranks here
No component ranks in the top quartile of the qualified universe.
What holds it back
Risk Intelligence is less favourable
Defensive characteristics rank below the middle of the qualified universe.
Long-term potential is mid-pack
Long-Term Potential ranks below the qualified median. This remains a research model.
Fundamental Momentum is softer
Reported business trends rank below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence is not uniformly supportive
The combined disclosed ownership evidence ranks below the qualified median.
Ownership evidence disagrees
Different owner groups point in different directions, so the combined reading is best read as mixed rather than uniformly favourable.
COMPOSITE DISCOVERY MODEL — RESEARCH STAGE · Data coverage Excellent. Rankings are recalculated daily using the latest available information. Individual components may update at different frequencies based on when new financial and ownership data becomes available.
Researched separately
Valuation Intelligence 30 · Expensive
RESEARCH MODEL
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
Researched separately
Capital Returns Intelligence 59 · Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
Score explanation
Why this company scores the way it does
Four research areas carry fixed weights. Each area is compared against every other eligible company, then weighted. The four contributions below add to 20.2 of the stored score (20.2).
Risk Intelligence
30% of the score · contributes 4.5 points
How strong and defensively sound is the company?
Stands at the 15 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 55 · 22% of this company’s total score
How financially sturdy the company has been when conditions turned against it.
How this area is measured
Risk Intelligence reads stored balance-sheet strength, historical downside behaviour and the company's price-risk grouping. A stronger reading describes past resilience; it does not protect against future losses.
Full methodologyLong-Term Potential
30% of the score · contributes 7.1 points
Does the business have the characteristics needed to create value over many years?
Stands at the 24 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 43 · 35% of this company’s total score
Whether the business has the durable characteristics long-term owners look for.
How this area is measured
Long-Term Potential reads durability characteristics such as profitability consistency, cash generation and reinvestment capability over multiple reported periods.
Full methodologyFundamental Momentum
20% of the score · contributes 4.4 points
Is the underlying business getting stronger or weaker?
Stands at the 22 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 36 · 22% of this company’s total score
Whether the reported business results have been getting stronger or weaker.
How this area is measured
Fundamental Momentum compares recent reported fundamentals with the company's own earlier periods, so improvement or deterioration is measured against its history rather than against a forecast.
Full methodologyOwnership Intelligence
20% of the score · contributes 4.2 points
What are important owners actually doing?
Stands at the 21 percentile of eligible companies · stored reading 59 · 21% of this company’s total score
What large reporting owners have actually been doing with their positions.
How this area is measured
Ownership Intelligence reads public ownership filings: how many tracked reporting owners hold the company, and whether they were adding, holding, reducing or exiting in the latest disclosed period.
Full methodology
What is helping the score
No research area currently stands in the stronger half of eligible companies.
What deserves attention
- Risk Intelligence — 15 percentile, adding only 4.5 of a possible 30 points.
- Ownership Intelligence — 21 percentile, adding only 4.2 of a possible 20 points.
- Fundamental Momentum — 22 percentile, adding only 4.4 of a possible 20 points.
- Long-Term Potential — 24 percentile, adding only 7.1 of a possible 30 points.
Outside the score
Additional research — not currently included in the primary Suggested Investment Score.
- Valuation Intelligence — PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 30 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Expensive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
- Capital Returns Intelligence — PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 59 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 1.3% a year.
Pro Investor Intelligence™
Reported by insiders, large shareholders and professional funds. Shown beside our research, never blended into it.
Loading professional-investor activity…
Stored snapshots only
What changed
Research-score history available since September 2026.
Stored research history does not yet cover a full 30 days comparison for this company.
A change is reported as meaningful at 8 score points, 5 rank places, or any change of research classification. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
Learn the metrics on this page
Plain-English definitions, with the formula and the limitations of each measure.
Fifth research lens · outside the score
Valuation Intelligence
Valuation Intelligence
Is today's price reasonable?
Valuation Intelligence is currently researched separately and does not affect the Suggested Investment Score or daily ranking.
30/ 100
Expensive
RESEARCH MODEL
Good coverage
Compared with its history
8
Expensive
Is this company expensive or inexpensive compared with its own history?
Compared with peers
8
Expensive
How expensive is this stock compared with similar companies?
Earnings & cash flow
52
Reasonable
How much financial output does an investor receive relative to the price paid?
Growth-adjusted
62
Attractive
Does the company's growth help justify the valuation investors are paying?
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 30 out of 100 on Valuation Intelligence, recorded as Expensive. The stock currently trades above most of its own recent valuation history and above comparable companies. This describes the price being paid relative to the company's financials — it is not a forecast and not a fair value.
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Valuation history
Stored readings only. The dashed line is this company's own median for the selected measure.
Only one stored valuation reading exists so far, so there is nothing to chart yet. Valuation history builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Current P/E 30.2x · own median 17.5x · peer median 16.2x
Valuation is inherently uncertain. A stock that appears inexpensive can continue falling, and a stock that appears expensive can continue rising. Valuation Intelligence provides context about the price investors are paying — it does not predict short-term market movements, and it never produces a fair value, a price target or a buy or sell range. Model VALUATION_INTELLIGENCE_V1.
Sixth research lens · outside the score
Capital Returns Intelligence
Capital Returns Intelligence
How effectively does the company reward shareholders?
Capital Returns Intelligence is researched separately and contributes 0% to the Suggested Investment Score, the daily rank or any ranking event.
59/ 100
Favorable Capital Returns
RESEARCH MODEL
Excellent coverage
Dividend Quality
83
Exceptional Capital Returns
Dividend reliability
Buyback Effectiveness
55
Moderate Capital Returns
Do buybacks actually reduce shares?
Dilution Control
59
Favorable Capital Returns
Is your ownership share protected?
Capital Return Sustainability
30
Limited Capital Returns
Can the cash flow support it?
Shareholder Yield
64
Favorable Capital Returns
Cash returned versus company value
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA reads 59 out of 100 on Capital Returns Intelligence (Favorable Capital Returns), reflecting a dividend that has grown about 8.6% a year and a share count falling about 1.3% a year.
Distributions coincided with rising debt over this period, so part of the cash returned was not funded by the cash the business generated.
How returned cash was used
Dividends $448.10M · net repurchases $211.80M · total returned $659.90M · 89% of free cash flow
Price data through September 11, 2026 · Financial data through the quarter ended June 30, 2026
Capital returns history
Stored readings only. History builds forward from activation rather than being reconstructed.
Only one stored reading exists for this measure so far, so there is nothing to chart yet.
Why higher yield isn't always better
A very high dividend yield may reflect a falling share price or an unsustainable payout. Capital Returns Intelligence emphasizes consistency and sustainability rather than simply rewarding the highest yield.
Why buybacks can be misleading
Announced or gross buyback spending does not always mean shareholders are gaining ownership. Companies can simultaneously issue shares through employee compensation or acquisitions. Suggested Investments therefore considers actual share-count changes alongside repurchase spending.
What these terms mean
- Dividend Yield
- The annual dividend relative to the current share price.
- Payout Ratio
- The share of company earnings used to pay dividends.
- Free Cash Flow Payout
- How much of the company's available cash is being used for dividends.
- Share Repurchases
- When a company buys back its own stock.
- Dilution
- When the number of shares increases, reducing each existing share's percentage ownership of the company.
- Shareholder Yield
- A combined view of dividends and net share repurchases relative to the company's market value.
Capital Returns Intelligence describes how a company returns capital to shareholders. It is not a measure of stock-price performance, it does not predict future returns, and a strong reading is never a recommendation to buy. Dividends and repurchases can be reduced or stopped at any time. Model CAPITAL_RETURNS_INTELLIGENCE_V1, contributing 0% to the Pro Investor Score.
Stored daily snapshots only
Ranking history
| Today | #678 | Score 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 30 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| 90 days ago | Not ranked | No stored score |
| First suggested | Not yet suggested | |
| Highest rank | #678 | |
In the company’s own words
What this company does
" of this Form 10-K. We notified customers of a $70 per ton price increase for linerboard and medium effective March 1, 2026.
Paper segment operating income was $130 million in 2025 and in 2024. Paper segment EBITDA excluding special items was $148 million in 2025, compared to $154 million in 2024. 1 The decrease was due primarily to higher operating costs and lower paper volumes, partially offset by higher prices and mix. Paper prices and mix reflected our 2025 price increase for office, printing, and converting papers.
Trade publications reported North American industry-wide corrugated products shipments were down (1.8%) in 2025, compared to 2024. Reported industry containerboard production decreased (4.5%) compared to 2024, and reported industry containerboard inventories at the end of 2025 were approximately 2.8 million tons, up 1.3% compared to 2024. Reported containerboard export shipments decreased (11.4%) compared to 2024. In February 2025, index prices increased $40 per ton for linerboard and for corrugating medium.
The market for communication papers competes heavily with electronic data transmission and document storage alternatives. Increasing shifts to these alternatives have reduced usage of traditional print media and communication papers. Trade publications reported North American uncoated freesheet paper shipments decreased (9.6%) in 2025, compared to 2024. Average prices reported by a trade publication for cut size office papers were higher by $47 per ton, or 3.3%, in 2025 compared to 2024. Reported index prices increased $30 per ton for cut size office papers and for offset printing papers in February 2025 and $10 per ton in April 2025.
Quoted from the business section of this company’s 10-K filed February 26, 2026. Read the filing
Four distinct intelligence areas
The IA view
Risk Intelligence
Production core
55
Fundamentally Qualified
+15.1 vs Jun 30, 2026
Business Quality qualification score from the locked IA Defensive Research Core. Price Risk stays a separate category and is never blended in.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Long-Term Potential
Research model
43
Weak Compounder
No prior period to compare
Durable business economics and reinvestment characteristics. Independent external validation is pending.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Momentum
Research model
36
Deteriorating
No prior period to compare
Direction and breadth of change in underlying business fundamentals. Not a price-momentum signal.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Elite Investor Activity
Supplemental
50
Mid range
0 vs Jun 30, 2026
Only 3 tracked managers disclosed a position — treat as limited coverage.
As of Sep 11, 2026
Company intelligence
PKG score history
Each area is measured and reported separately. No combined score exists.
PKG intelligence history from 2023-09-30 to 2026-09-11. Risk Intelligence 55.1 on 2026-09-11, up 15.1 from 40 on 2026-06-30. Long-Term Potential 43.3 on 2026-09-11. Fundamental Momentum 36.1 on 2026-09-11. Elite Investor Activity 50 on 2026-09-11, unchanged 0 from 50 on 2026-06-30. Each area is reported separately and is never combined into a single score.
Risk Intelligence 55.1 as of Sep 11, 2026 (+15.1 vs prior period) · Production core
Long-Term Potential 43.3 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Fundamental Momentum 36.1 as of Sep 11, 2026 · Research model
Elite Investor Activity 50 as of Sep 11, 2026 (0 vs prior period) · Supplemental
Share price
PKG price history
Closing prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Past prices do not indicate future results.
- 6M change
- +10.9%
- 1Y change
- +10.7%
- 3Y change
- +71.7%
- 5Y change
- +87.7%
- Max change
- +157.1%
Last stored close $234.40 · +10.7% over the selected range · 52 sessions shown
Balanced evidence
Why IA likes it
- More disclosed holders are new or increasing than reducing or exiting.
Risk and uncertainty
What IA doesn’t like
- No specific negative evidence is available. This is not evidence of low risk.
What would change our view
- Business Quality falling below the frozen qualification threshold.
- Price Risk moving to a less favorable category.
- A sustained reversal in the Fundamental Momentum research evidence.
- New material public ownership disclosures.
Public filings · descriptive only
Elite Investor Activity
Reporting holders
4
New holders
2
Increasing
1
Reducing
1
Exiting
0
Coverage
Excellent
Positive disclosed activity · Report period 2022-03-31 · Public 12/19/2023
| Manager | Change | Portfolio weight | Rank | Disclosed |
|---|
Insufficient high-confidence manager coverage.
Objective stored changes
What changed
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive weakened
Business Quality qualification score moved from 40.0 to 35.1.
- Risk Intelligence
IA Defensive improved
Business Quality qualification score moved from 38.2 to 40.0.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus strengthened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 0 to 50 for the reporting period ending 2026-06-30.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 67 to 0 for the reporting period ending 2026-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Elite Investor Consensus weakened
Disclosed agreement among tracked managers moved from 67 to 25 for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers exited positions
2 tracked managers no longer disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2025-03-31.
- Elite Investor Activity
Tracked managers initiated positions
2 tracked managers first disclosed a position for the reporting period ending 2024-09-30.
Ownership timeline
No high-confidence public ownership events are available.
General research only. Not personalized advice. Public filings may be delayed, amended, incomplete, or reflect positions that have changed since the reporting date.